Economic oil spill on the horizon?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices are on the march again, rising above $71 a barrel Monday for the first time in more than a month.

The good news is that increased optimism about an economic recovery is one big factor behind the jump in crude prices. The bad news is that if oil prices continue to rise, we may have to kiss those recovery hopes goodbye.

While there appear to be many signs that the economy is stabilizing, there has yet to be a pickup in consumer spending.

Many are still nervous about the economy, and the memory of last summer's $4 a gallon gas and $140 a barrel oil is still fresh in the minds of most people.

So the last thing that consumers need are more worries about rising costs at the pump and how expensive it's going to be to keep their homes warm this winter.

Robert Dye, senior economist with PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh, said that oil prices between $60 and $70 a barrel are consistent with his belief that the recession should end sometime during this quarter and that the nation's gross domestic product could actually grow on an annualized pace in the fourth quarter.

But Dye said that if oil prices continue to remain higher than $70 for an indefinite period, that could be a problem.

"Oil above $70 could exert downward pressure on GDP, and if we get into the $80 to $90 range, I do think we run the risk of this very fragile recovery stalling out," he said.

Talkback: Are rising oil and gas prices affecting your spending habits? And are you worried that energy prices will get back near last year's record levels? Leave your comments at the bottom of this story.

Gas prices have taken a turn up as of late as well. The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas inched up to about $2.55 a gallon, according to the AAA's latest daily report Monday. That marked the 13th consecutive increase. Prices are up nearly a dime during that span.

Keith Hembre, chief economist for First American Funds in Minneapolis, said that these increases could cause consumers to pull back on other purchases. He estimates that for every penny increase in gas prices, consumers are collectively likely to spend $1.25 billion less on other discretionary items.

So the most recent rise in gas prices could mean that $12.5 billion spent on gas won't be spent elsewhere. To be sure, that's not a huge amount. But if energy prices keep rising, it will add up.

"It's cliche, but rising oil and gas prices are like a tax on consumers," Hembre said. "These increases probably won't be catastrophic and cause a major downturn in spending, but it's another factor that's likely to weigh on the pace of the recovery."